Today, the Republican field got smaller. Governor George Pataki dropped out. He peaked at 0.7% in early August and was sitting at 0.0% as of last update. This leaves 12 remaining Republicans. 11 of which I am tracking. I am not tracking Gilmore and only six candidates are polling at or above 5%. Aside from Gilmore, we would be very unlikely to see anyone else drop out before Iowa.
Not a whole lot of movement. Trump & Clinton still have comfortable leads. Trump is up by 15.44% and Clinton is up by 27.36% in their respective races.
Since the poll is from Quinnipiac, I will preface by saying that this pollster has been using a very narrow electorate this cycle. Therefore, General Election and primary samples are more polarized and much less Democratic. This helps candidates like Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. This explains why Trump and Cruz are closer here than in any other poll in the last few weeks.
The Democratic side doesn't change a whole lot. Clinton does edge out her previous high-point of 57.6%. She has not been higher than that mark since I began tracking an aggregate in late July. She is now at 59.48%. To compare, in 2008 at this point, she was at 41.71% and falling. She is now ~18% better than she was in 2008 and trending upwards now instead of down. I have heard way too often comparisons to Clinton in 2008. Mathematically, no such comparison can be drawn from an aggregate, or even from individual polls at this point. If we took off her highest poll in each set: She would be at 40.5% in 2007 and 58% in 2015. So, these numbers are fairly solid.
This poll seems to be way too inclusive on the GOP end for the primaries. Not only did they find a large number of Republicans overall, but they found a large portion of them are going to vote in the primary. This would be very good news for Trump if this actually were the case. Such a turnout is likely unrealistic.
Updated: Going into the Democratic debate this weekend, the race remains steady. (Feel like a broken record.)
New poll out of NH brings minimal changes. O'Malley apparently doesn't have any momentum here after all.
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