Wang links Orman automatically with the Democrats in his projections, which is problematic as it inflates Democratic chances this fall by a noticeable margin.
While Orman has been coy when asked about with whom he would caucus; there is quite a bit of information out there (Both put out by him, and put out by other sources) that give us a little insight into the issue. Another point to consider is how reliable of a vote could Orman be for either party as a member of the respective caucus? Well there is quite a bit of uncertainty there.
- While in college, Greg Orman was a member of the College Republicans.
- He cites some of his political heros as Ronald Reagan and Bob Dole. Though neither of these individuals are very conservative in relation to today's Republican party. So his preference to these two Republicans shouldn't be directly correlated to Orman being a current backer of the current Republican party. Though, this, doesn't necessarily discount that either. There are many Republicans in the Senate that idolize Bob Dole and Ronald Reagan.
- His first election as a voter was in 1988. While I cannot find a definitive statement or source on if he indeed voted for Bush: this could be surmised by his work for the Bush campaign as a member of the college Republicans. Why would someone work or volunteer for a candidate that they do not intend to vote for?
- Parts of his campaign site (http://www.ormanforsenate.com) read more like a libertarian or a blue dog democrat than as a main stream Republican or Democrat. This doesn't really help us much when we try to think of how Orman would behave as a member of the Senate. He would likely be fiscally conservative/moderate, but socially... would he support Gay Marriage or Planned Parenthood? He states that he is "socially tolerant."
- He says he supported the Senate Immigration Reform and border security bill that based on a bipartisan basis during the current session. This is the bill that Sen. Rubio (R-FL) signed onto and got the full support of the Senate Democratic caucus.
- In 2007, he contributed to Harry Reid (D-NV).
- In 2008, he contributed to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.
- In 2008, he voted for Barack Obama.
- In 2010, he contributed to Scott Brown (R-MA) and Todd Akin (R-MO)
- In 2012, he voted for Mitt Romney.
- While he is currently not registered as a member of either party, he has been both a registered Republican and Democrat at different points since 1988.
- He has been endorsed this cycle by Traditional Republicans for Common Sense.
What is my point with this list? Well, for one: the Democrats shouldn't be betting the farm on Orman to help them keep the Senate. Even if Orman wins (of which he is the current front runner by a few points), he still may caucus with the Senate GOP. Or even as a Democrat, would he vote with the caucus most of the time? The same could be said if he caucused with the GOP.
There are so many variables right now in this race. This is why I added the extra uncertainty to my projection. He could possibly save the Democrats this cycle. The Democrats could also win the Senate without his help. The Democrats could lose 7+ seats and make Orman caucus with the majority GOP. Or Orman could win and become the "kingmaker" of the Senate and decide to caucus with the GOP. Anyone who tries to tell you that they are confident in discerning where Orman would end up is either not informed or just not being honest.