Gubernatorial races to watch: There are quite a few close races here. This is a list of the closest and the front-runner along with the front runner's probability of victory. (I list races here where win probability is ≤75%)
4. New Hampshire-D-71%
My final average front-runner win probability is 91.88%. This equates to if we held the election enough times to get a nice Gaussian distribution: these front runners would win 66.15/72 races on average per run.