Today was the day we got a large slew of Senate polls from Marist and YouGov. Overall the results were quite mixed. The trends (from the last round) in the YouGov polls, for the most part, benefit the Dems even though the aggregate moved in the other direction much of the time. This rounds looks a lot cleaner than the last round. The cross tabs are for the correct polls this time and I have only found one typo. The Kansas Senate race is 41-40 with leaners. The list mistakenly tallies a 40-40 tie.
Again, the polls seem to have some strange results most notably being Hawaii and Wyoming. While they are both safe seats, I doubt that the margin has ballooned itself to 54 and 58 points. The YouGov polls seem to have the biggest problem with minorities and the ability to gauge the exact size of large leads. (the latter of which is a very common problem)
Notice that all of the races where the trailing party has a >20% chance of winning are seats in which the GOP current leads. Meaning that unless things change in NC, MN, NH, or MI the GOP is currently at it's ceiling. Since I assign Orman to the majority party, a turn of events for Roberts in Kansas would still leave the Senate at 53-47. This is why the average seats in my simulations is still under 51. The mean is under 51 while the mode is 52. The GOP chances climbed another 2 points today.
Again, the polls seem to have some strange results most notably being Hawaii and Wyoming. While they are both safe seats, I doubt that the margin has ballooned itself to 54 and 58 points. The YouGov polls seem to have the biggest problem with minorities and the ability to gauge the exact size of large leads. (the latter of which is a very common problem)
Notice that all of the races where the trailing party has a >20% chance of winning are seats in which the GOP current leads. Meaning that unless things change in NC, MN, NH, or MI the GOP is currently at it's ceiling. Since I assign Orman to the majority party, a turn of events for Roberts in Kansas would still leave the Senate at 53-47. This is why the average seats in my simulations is still under 51. The mean is under 51 while the mode is 52. The GOP chances climbed another 2 points today.
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