I have created a tool to extrapolate national polling based upon the Cook PVI for all 50 states. I plugged in the one number for Trump and this is what I got:
For comparison, I took the Jeb Bush numbers from today's PPP national polling and got this result:
Since the Quinnipiac poll shows Bush doing much better than the PPP does, I lowered Trumps deficit by the 6% than Jeb Bush picks up in today's PPP poll. This gives Trump a 12% deficit and an electoral college that looks like this:
**This model isn't really intended at this point to project anything. That being said, I will be using this model in conjunction with state level polling in 2016 to project the final electoral college. At this point, this is just to give some comparative context to the preliminary polling numbers that we have. I feel that this extrapolation means more than saying that Trump trails Clinton by 18% at this point. Feedback always welcome.