Another day, another couple polls. The big story is that Trump is in position to possibly take all 95 delegates in New York. That would be a large boost to his campaign. GOP delegate allocation rules for NY allow that if a candidate gets over 50% state wide: That candidate wins 100% of the At-Large delegates. Further, if a candidate wins over 50% in a congressional district: That candidate wins all 3 delegates for that district. Polling ~4.33% above 50% right now statewide, puts him in position to have a chance to do just that.
Yesterday, I posted this delegate allocation for New York. I am posting this again with my new state-wide numbers. (See Yesterday's post for how I extrapolated to those numbers) Today, I did a little something different at the congressional district level. I gave Clinton a 55-45 margin in Long Island and Staten Island. I have her a 61-39 margin in the rest of NYC. I gave her a 50.01-49.99 margin in the rest of the state. This break down works out to be a little better for Sanders than is likely, but it serves as a demonstration.
If the delegates break down like that, Clinton will take 145 delegates to Sanders' 102. This would expand her delegate lead to 255. Sanders would then need at least 59.15% of all remaining pledged delegates to be able to take a pledged delegate majority to the convention.
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