On Thursday, one of the Republicans I identified as a potential candidate over the weekend, announced that he will be competing for the Republican nomination for Minnesota's 2018 Gubernatorial election.  The Republican is State Representative Matt Dean of 38B in the Northeast metro.

Dean was the Minnesota House Majority Leader from 2011-2013 during Kurt Zellers' (not to be confused with potential 2018 candidate, and current Speaker of the House, Kurt Daudt) tenure as Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives. Dean first won his seat in 2004 when he beat Rebecca Otto (current State Auditor and DFL candidate for Governor) 51.59%-48.32%.  For reference, that year George W. Bush was beating John Kerry 52.94%-46.05% in the same district.  In 2003, Otto won the seat over Matt Dean 54.40%-43.47%.  Obama won his district by 21 votes (49.30%-49.22%) in 2008.  Dean won reelection in 2016 by over 3,400 votes for a 56.94%-42.95% margin while Trump was carrying the district by a much more modest 46.04%-44.89%.  While Minnesota was much tighter in 2016 than  is had been in 2008 or 2012, Clinton performed quite well in the suburbs.  Dean's district was a prime example of this. 

Dean isn't a stranger to fights both political and the personal.  In 2011, Dean made some statements about author Neil Gaiman that he later apologized for being a "name caller."  Dean said Gaiman is an author "who I hate," was a "pencil-necked little weasel who stole $45,000 from the state of Minnesota."  It is worth noting that, according to Gaiman, the fee was actually $33,600 and was "donated to charity groups." 

Dean isn't exactly the most moderate of Minnesota Republicans.  He is currently promoting a petition on his website (MattDean.org and not his campaign site which is mattdeanforgovernor.com) to "kill" MNSURE.  He vowed in his statement announcing his campaign to "kill and bury MNSURE and go back to doing healthcare the Minnesota way."

Dean's wife, Laura, was a Delegate to the 2016 National GOP Convention in Cleveland.  Information is not readily available as to which candidate she was bound to.  However, Dean was a District-wide delegate from MN-04.  Therefore, we know she was either bound to Rubio (2 of 3 MN-04 Delegates) or Cruz (1 of 3 MN-04 Delegates). 

I have posted a Google Spreadsheet that breaks down precinct level for Presidential races in 2012 & 2016 in GA-06 along with 2017 Jungle primary numbers broken down by party.  I added together all Democratic candidates and all Republican candidates to create a two party vote share.  The total vote number includes unaffiliateds and therefore will not add up to 100%.

LINK

Going to start posting some regular looks at the Minnesota races we have on tap for 2018.  Trump came closer to winning Minnesota than any Republican Presidential candidate has come since Ronald Reagan did in 1984 when Walter Mondale carried the state by 0.18% (3,761 votes).  Trump lost to Clinton in Minnesota by 1.51% (44,593 votes) while winning in 5 of Minnesota's 8 congressional districts.  The third party share of the vote in Minnesota was 8.63%.  That is the largest share of the vote since 1996 when third parties combined for 14.66%.  1996 paled in comparison to 1992 when third parties (almost entirely Perot) took  24.67% or 579,110 votes.  These third parties are important to keep in mind when talking about Minnesota.  Even when they don't win (Ventura, 1998), they regularly take a significant portion of the vote for Statewide races. 

Minnesota is one of the few states in the Midwest where the Democrats have a large bench.  Large may be selling it short.  Republicans have not held a statewide office in Minnesota since Mark Dayton took office in January of 2011. Democrats hold a 5-4 majority in congressional seats in Minnesota.  The last time the GOP held a majority of U.S. House seats in Minnesota was 1983.  They only held a majority for the 1981-1983 term.  Before that was 1973.  The last time the GOP held both Minnesota Senate seats was 1991.  The Democrats have had both Senate Seats since Franken took office in 2009 after a long recount and court battle.

The deep bench of the Minnesota DFL (This is what Minnesota Democrats have called themselves since 1944 when the Democratic and the Farmer Labor party merged) is evident when you look at the number of prominent DFL'rs that have entered the race.  There have also been a few high profile passes: Former DNC Vice Chair and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak, sitting Senior Senator Amy Klobuchar and sitting Lt. Governor Tina Smith .

Here is a list of the declared DFL candidates:

• Chris Coleman, Mayor of St. Paul (2006-present, term ends January 2018)
  
• Erin Murphy, State Representative from St. Paul, Former State House Majority Leader (2013-15)
  
• Rebecca Otto, three term State Auditor (2007-present), former State Representative (2003-5)
  
• Tina Liebling, State Representative from Rochester (2005-present)
  
• Tim Walz, MN-01 Congressman (2007-present)
  

For comparison, here is a list of declared GOP candidates:

• Christopher Chamberlin, activist, is running to "drain the swamp"
  
• Blake Huffman, Ramsey County Comissioner
  

Yep, that's it.  How about potential candidates?
Here is a list of potential DFL candidates:

• Rick Nolan, MN-08 Congressman (2013-present), former State House Representative (1969-72) & former MN-06 Congressman (1975-1981)
  
• Lori Swanson, three term State Attorney General (2007-present), former state Deputy Attorney General and State Solicitor General
  
• Tom Bakk, From Cook, Minnesota, Current State Senate Minority Leader (2011-12, 17) Former State Senate Majority Leader (2013-17), State Senator (2003-present), State Representative (1995-2003)
  
• Paul Thissen, State Representative from Minneapolis, former State House Speaker (2013-15) & former State House Minority Leader (2011-13,15-17)
  

And a list of potential GOP candidates (The GOP has a few strong candidates here, but with so many potential open races in 2018 on the GOP side, many of them are not likely to jump in the Gubernatorial race):

• Jeff Johnson, current Hennepin County Commissioner, former State Representative (2003-2007), he has run and lost two state-wide races: 2014 Governor (lost to Dayton 50.07%-44.51%) and 2006 Attorney General (lost to Swanson 53.24%-40.72%)
  
• Kurt Daudt, Current State House Speaker (2015-present), former State House Minority Leader (2013-2015). member of State House from  Isanti County (2011-present)
  
• Rich Stanek, current Hennepin County Sheriff (2007-present), former State House member (1995-2003), former Commissioner of Public Safety (2003-04), current Vice President of the National Sheriff's Association
  
• Erik Paulsen, current MN-03 Congressman (2009-present), former State House member (1995-2009), former State House Majority Leader (2003-2007)
  
• Amy Koch, former State Senator (2006-2013), former State Senate Majority Leader (2011, only served 11 months until resigning for "engaging in a relationship with a Senate Staffer)
  
• Keith Downey, current Minnesota Republican Party Chair (2013-present), former member of the State House (2009-13)
  
• Mike McFadden, co-CEO of a Minneapolis-based investment bank, 2014 candidate for Senator (lost to Franken 53.15%-42.91%)
  
• Tom Emmer, current MN-06 Congressman, former member of the State House (2005-11), 2010 candidate for Governor (lost to Dayton 43.63%-43.21%)
  
• Sarah Anderson, Member of State House from Plymouth (2007-present)
  
• Michelle Benson, Member of State Senate from Ham Lake (2007-present)
  
• David Osmek, member of the State House from Mound (2013-present)
  
• Matt Dean, current member of State House (2007-present), former State House Majority Leader (2011-13)
  

As I said before, most of these Republicans are very unlikely to run.  The state GOP needs to recruit a likely sacrificial lamb to run against Klobuchar in 2014.  They also need to field candidates for open races in MN-01 & the State Auditor's race.  They have statewide races for Attorney General and the Secretary of State (the state-wide race with the closest margin in 2014) as well as trying to make pick-ups in MN-07 & MN-08.  If someone like Erik Paulsen decides to jump in, look for most of the lower profile Republicans to start announcing for those other races. 

One Democrat who is likely to stay put is Attorney General Lori Swanson.  She may be more likely to make a run for Senate in the future should Franken or Klobuchar make a run for the White House.  At the age of 50, she certainly could just wait to run for Governor in 2022 or 2026 as well.  She has been able to stay above the political bickering to this point, so she may be looking to maintain that until she has a clearer path. 

Former State House member from Golden Valley, Ryan Winkler (2007-15), announced his intentions to run for Attorney General.  He mad it clear in his announcement that his run was conditional on Lori Swanson not seeking a fourth term.  He spoke highly of her and said he would not run to challenge her.  He began sending out emails to state DFL voters after the 2016 cycle about once a month.  He has yet to move those emails from the general "advocacy of issues and current events" emails to any sort of campaign event and explicit pleas for contributions.  His emails don't sound like a candidate that thinks he will be running. 

I will be writing more on the Gubernatorial race in Minnesota in the coming days, weeks and months so stay tuned.  Any news/campaign/polling tips or suggestions can be sent to press@aaronbooth.info