Moderate DEM Hold
Thus far the polling has been close. These are the polls since the beginning of March:
47%-37% Peters (CEA/Hickman Analytics (D))
46%-41% Peters (Magellan Strategies (R))
38%-34% Land (Mitchell Research)
41%-36% Peters (PPP (D))
38%-40% Land (MRG (R))
40%-37% Peters (LE&A/Denno Research (D))
The only non-partisan poll shows Land (R) up by 4 points. However, since both Republican and Democratic partisan polls disagree with the Mitchell Research poll, we can take that one with a grain of salt. It isn't all that common when both the DEM and REP polls agree with each other, so since that is the case here, I will give them more weight.
The PVI in Michigan is D+4. The wildcard here could be the Presidents approval rating which has fluctuated between 35%-44% in the last 6 months in the state. This is well below the national average, The polling over the last six months has been trending towards Peters and the PVI for the state. Unless there is some large catastrophe in the Peters camp, I don't see this trend changing much between now and November.