Gubernatorial: This one could be the most interesting. After the rocky attempt to enact a "religious freedom" law earlier this year, Governor Mike Pence's approval ratings have gone south. While the law was later amended, it remains unclear whether that has helped to rebound his chances for reelection. In Indiana, Pence will start off the favorite to win, but he could be in for a challenge. Pence won his first term in 2012 by just over 3% (while Obama lost the state by 10.2%). John Gregg lost that race to Pence while outpacing Obama by roughly 7%. Gregg has declared his candidacy for a 2016 rematch, and could fare better with a roughed up Pence and a stronger performance by Clinton at the top of the ticket.
There have been two polls on this race. A Bellweather poll from April has Pence ahead 43%-37%. A GQR poll from April (the poll was paid for by the Human Rights Campaign) pegs the race at a 47%-47% tie. The poll tied at 47% obviously has a clear agenda as displayed in the line: "They could not have been more wrong." Even the 43%-37% poll shouldn't encourage the Pence camp all that much. He is at 43% as an incumbent with a Democratic field that includes 3 declared candidates and a large swath of potential candidates.
The Bellweather poll actually puts another Democrat a little closer to Pence. They put Glenda Ritz (The Superintendent of Public Instruction and one of only two Democrats currently elected to statewide office in Indiana) down by a slightly smaller 42%-39% margin. Again, while early these numbers shouldn't make either camp too enthusiastic. In the right circumstances, this would likely be the first of the three in Indiana to turn blue in 2016.
Senate: Senator Dan Coats has announced his retirement from the Senate and we will have an open race here. His cheif of staff, Eric Holcomb, and Representative Marlin Stutzman are the two Republicans currently in the race. Democrats have former Representative Baron Hill as their only declared candidate. Democrats would have been thrilled to get former Senator Evan Bayh to run, but he has declined to run. There is no polling on this race right now and the GOP has the advantage here. That being said, it is unclear what could develop here. Democratic chances for a pickup did increase with the retirement of Senator Coats.
President: Unfortunately, we have no polling here as of yet. That being said, the ERNE here is R +12.07%. That being said, Obama did outperform that by about 6% in 2008. While Clinton will likely do better here in 2016 than Obama did in 2012, it is unclear whether she has a legitimate chance to put this red state in play. The median and mean Clinton v. Bush margin in the last 3 polls is Clinton +4. This would give Bush a 8.07% victory here if things extrapolated out uniformly. While that would give Clinton 2% better than Obama did in 2012, she would still be a ways away from an upset here.