A slew internal/partisan client polls were released from Illinois, Oklahoma and Kentucky. The poll from Illinois is the strangest of the group. The MoE for this poll is calculated in the strangest fashion. MoE Q3 of +/-2.9%. The usual CI is 95%, the confidence interval here is 75% (Q3). Therefore, 1/4 times, the result will be greater than 2.9% away from the result of this poll. No serious pollster would use such a low confidence interval. Since over 1,200 were polled, I am presuming this was a mistake on the part of the individual that wrote the release. The top of the first page is cut off, so it is hard to tell if more insight into the number mismatch is available. My guess is that this was either miscopied, someone doesn't know what Q3 means, or the sample size/MoE are just wrong.
The Oklahoma internal was even more strange. It shows the Democrat pulling within 2% of the Republican incumbent. The RGA just made a large ad-buy ion the state so they may be seeing a closing margin in their internals as well.
The MULaw poll was quite the flip from the poll yesterday by Gravis for the conservative group I mentioned in my post yesterday. (The survey of Likely voters that is mislabeled as registered voters). Likely, the actual margin looks to be somewhere in the middle of those two. Walker does have a slight MoE lead at the moment.
Kansas remains a problem for the GOP. Davis continues the lead he has held in the polls since the first poll of the race in 2013. Orman maintains a mid single digit lead over the unpopular incumbent, Roberts. The undecideds in both races strongly favor Orman and Davis. In the Gubernatorial race, the respondents that are undecided or are responding as supporting the libertarian candidate break for Davis 57%-10%. Among voters that are familiar with both Orman and Roberts, Orman is favored 52%-40%. This is all in line with all recent polling in the state with the exception of the strange YouGov result for Governor. Decision out of Kansas today is that no Democratic candidate will need to be placed on the ballots that are scheduled to begin printing this afternoon. This is a break for Orman who has a much more clear path to victory going up against Roberts. Part of the rational for the ruling is that the complainant did not bother to show up for the hearing.
The Massachusetts Gubernatorial becomes a slight advantage to the GOP for a pickup. Today, a polling firm which had Baker down 10% last week, has found him only down by 3. This swings the aggregate to the red team. This race has been trending this was for the last couple months. The Democrats need to end the bleeding here unless they want to give this one away. Massachusetts does have a history of electing Republican Governors more frequently than Republican Senators. The closest comparison in the other direction is Kentucky which has a Democratic Governor and two Republican Senators.
Tomorrow, we will have a New Jersey Senate poll from Quinnipiac.
South Carolina Governor
South Carolina Senate 1
South Carolina Senate 2