Trump's numbers have been stubbornly consistently rising regardless what he says or does. Rapists comment? He jumped to first. McCain comment? His lead increased. Debate performance and post-debate attack on Megyn Kelly? So far, his numbers have remained steady. Over time, he has even moved closer to what the rest of the field gets against Clinton. So, here are my new primary numbers for the National GOP and Democrats as well as GOP in Iowa. Since the debate has passed with Fox's top-ten limit: I have just extended the numbering to 16 for reference in the large GOP field. I have also started to track the averages for the GOP on a line plot.
We also have some new general election polling thanks to new Morning Consult and Ipsos polls.
Unfortunately, we only have a full demographic data set for the Morning Consult poll. But I have put what we do have for demographics from these two polls in this chart. All in all, the samples look fairly decent. The Morning Consult poll saw a much whiter electorate than we are likely to see (possibly by as much as 10%). Though, Morning Consult have us a good partisan and male/Female split. IPSOS gave us a decent partisan split but didn't give us anything else to interpret the data from.
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