Since my projection changes today are likely confusing to some of my visitors: I am going to give a brief explanation.

First of all, the GOP us now projected to get 51 seats for the first time since I began in May. The confusing part comes when you look at the probability listed: Today it dropped for the GOP from 52% to 48%. While those of you that understand how probabilities are calculated understand what this means; some of you may not. To be clear, 52% and 48% are basically both equal to a coin toss. So, there is not a whole lot of big picture change there with a 4% shift.

Probabilities rely upon the standard deviation (

First of all, the GOP us now projected to get 51 seats for the first time since I began in May. The confusing part comes when you look at the probability listed: Today it dropped for the GOP from 52% to 48%. While those of you that understand how probabilities are calculated understand what this means; some of you may not. To be clear, 52% and 48% are basically both equal to a coin toss. So, there is not a whole lot of big picture change there with a 4% shift.

Probabilities rely upon the standard deviation (

**σ**) of a given sample. The**σ**will be higher when polls are more spread out in their margins, and lower when they all are close together. This is what we have going on in NC. The**σ**in my model there is actually under 1%. The current D +3.5% margin in NC is over 3**σ**(actually it is roughly 3.9**σ**) away from being tied. This is why the NC chances for the GOP are <1% (0.22%) today while they were 13% yesterday. This is the major change which leads to the GOP chances dropping overall. Alaska SenateColorado SenateDelaware SenateNew York GovernorNorth Carolina SenatePennsylvania GovernorVirginia Senate | R +0.7%D +0.7%D +13.3%D +24.6%D +2.9%D +20.4%D +17.9% | ->-> -> -> -> -> -> | R +1.8%R +0.3%D +11.4%D +21.8%D +3.5%D +20.3%D +15.2% | 63%52%<1% <1% <1% <1% <1% |