In today's polling, we continue to see Colorado trend towards the GOP. Although, the Quinnipiac poll we got today actually demonstrated a trend in the opposite direction over their previous poll which already dated itself out of my model. We also got our second straight poll showing the Democratic candidate ahead in the Georgia Senate race. This poll though shows both races in Georgia getting tighter over their previous polls (though not a statistically significant shift). The recent polls here in my model have been D +1, D +3, R +2, tie, R +2, and R +4. When weighted for recency, they work out to R +0.3% which results in an ever so slight (53%) GOP advantage in this race. One more poll in this race (unless from a pollster already in the model and showing a Nunn tie or better) that shows a Nunn lead would flip Georgia to blue in my model. The question though is can either candidate reach the 50% threshold here to avoid a run-off. If there is a run-off, then all bets are off. There is a very thin history to judge the possible outcome. In 2008, the GOP candidate won the Georgia run-off handily. Though this seat (including Franken of Minnesota) would have represented number 61 for the Democrats. That is a MUCH less significant number than anything under 60. So, it is hard to guess what a different environment, different Senate balance, possibility of Senate control, and different candidates might mean for such an outcome. As the election sits right now, I would give a (estimated) 50% probability that this race goes to a run-off. That probability is only likely to grow in the next couple weeks unless one of the two candidates starts the break away. With momentum as it sits, the candidate more likely to do that right now would be Nunn, the Democrat.
Right now the chance of GOP control sits at 56%. If the Democrats can flip 2 seats that the GOP currently holds an advantage in (a handful of which are within 3 points) we would get to the scenario where Orman decides the balance of power.