The biggest difference between Arkansas and other red states in 2016? Clinton. Bill Clinton is still the most popular living politician in the country. He still has a positive favorability rating in Arkansas. He was also the last Democrat to carry the state in a Presidential election. Hillary might not win Arkansas, but she is best positioned to do better here than basically any other potential Democrat. I wouldn't be shocked if she ended up only losing Arkansas by 2-4%. She would, no doubt, out pace Obama's 2012 number of -23.69% or -19.85% in 2008. John Kerry lost the state by 9.76% in 2004. Gore lost Arkansas in 2000 by 5.45%.
The Senate seat is in about the same boat. While it is likely to stay red, Democrats still have a path to victory. Their best chance would be if they could convince former Governor Mike Bebe to run. He left office with an approval rating roughly 70%. If he were to run, this could be a decent shot to be a pick up. That being said, Arkansas has recently turned its back on moderate/conservative Democrats that were previously widely popular. Most notably would be Mark Pryor who ran without a Republican opponent in 2008.
Incumbent Republican, John Boozman is 64 has had some heart issues int he last year when he went in for heart surgery. He also has less than $100,000 cash on hand and remains largely unknown in his home state. Even with his problems, he remains a favorite. But, he is less of a favorite that an incumbent should be in a state that has been trending as red as Arkansas.