As I explained last time I posted this, this is a track of the "momentum" value on the right hand side of this page. While that word isn't entirely appropriate since it is referring to previous movement and not continual movement; it is what I am using anyhow. The raw number on the left matters a lot less than the overall trend of the line. Basically, when the line goes up it is a good day for the GOP. When the line goes down, it is a good day for Democrats.
The Generic ballot continues to trend back to the Dems again. While it is unlikely to change much in the last few days before the election, this average challenges the conceptions that the GOP is headed towards double digit gains in the House. The Generic ballot average is the only House of Representatives indicator that I currently present on my site. However, if I had to hazard an estimation, I would say that the GOP are likely to pick up somewhere between 5-8 seats in the House. The cap for the GOP seems to be around 10 +/- 2 and the bottom seems to be 3 +/- 2. I don't see a scenario at this point where the GOP doesn't at least pick up a couple seats. The seats to watch (in particular) on election night will be NY-11, NH-1, WV-3, IA-1, MA-6, MN-8, AZ-2, NE-2, CA-7 and CA-31. If the Democrats lose more than one of these, it will likely be on the higher end of my range.
Kansas continues to be close. Orman maintains a slight edge for Senate and Davis maintains a slight edge for Governor. These two races will be important races to watch on election night. That being said, these two races likely mean very little as far as indications of other races. Both races are tipping on local and state issues. So, if Orman and Davis win here, it won't necessarily mean that the Democrats are in for a good night. it is plausible that Orman and Davis could win in Kansas and the GOP could still pick up a net 7-8 seats in the Senate given that Orman would caucus with the majority party.
Another interesting poll done for a Republican group shows a small 0.7% lead for the GOP candidate for Governor in Arizona. Other, non-client, polls as of late have shown larger GOP leads. Even Rhode Island continues to tighten in part due to a third party candidate receiving 11% of the vote in today's Brown University poll.
A few interesting shifts so far today. South Dakota, as expected, moves back to 99% for the GOP and Massachusetts continues to slip away from the Dems. Alaska, Louisiana, Georgia, and Iowa all tighten up some. Louisiana and Georgia continue to look on their way to run-offs.
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