Clinton has won every scientific poll of debate watchers. That being said, the bump she has gotten from the debate seems to be minor. The minor bump is evident and it does continue her negligible lead. We will have to wait through the weekend to see if her trend continues and whether the VP debate and further POTUS debates work in her favor. She remains a modest favorite tp win in November.
Clinton, while maintaining her lead that she has held all cycle, is in a position where she could use some help from Trump. Expectations where they are, unless Trump entirely implodes during the debate, it will likely be considered a "win" for him. Clinton could run circles around him with policy and Trump would win so long as he refrains from actually shooting someone on fifth avenue before the debate. It is even a couple hours where he can't tweet. That is another plus for his campaign.
The Senate is another story all together. This cycle, we have gone from Democrats having a slight edge to retake the Senate to the Republicans being a heavy favorite to keep it. There is very little evidence that the Senate is tracking the Presidential race at all, which is shocking to an extent. While candidates are always over and underperforming the top of the ticket, a Senate map such as we have this year SHOULD suggest Democrats have a heavy advantage. It will be interesting to see if candidates like Rubio, Kirk, Toomey and Ayotte continue to run far ahead of Trump. Likewise on the Democratic side: Kander, Bennett and Feingold are running (at least marginally) ahead of Clinton.
This is now where I see this race sitting. Clinton picks up North Carolina from the Romney pile and Trump picks up Iowa and Maine's Second Congressional District. Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Nevada, Arizona and Georgia are now all (roughly) equally in play. So there is still quite a bit of uncertainty here. We are getting to the point where we are unlikely to see any surprises (unless you would still consider any one of the states I just mentioned as a surprise).
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