As I mentioned a while back, I have been posting a running tracker on the right side bar that shows "momentum." This is a raw quantification of the overall direction polling has taken from day to day. The actual number on the Y axis is less important that the change in the number. The change has been towards the GOP (the higher the number: the more of a GOP trend). The largest jump was in early September when the generic ballot jumped by 4 points and the YouGov polling dump was happening. Aside from that one event, the landscape has been mostly stable. The thing note is WHERE the shifts are happening at the smaller level. The shifts in Colorado and Iowa have been minor in regards to the overall field, but their effect on the final outcome cannot be over stated.
The bright spot today for the GOP is Arkansas where they are expanding their lead in the Gubernatorial race. Besides that, the Democrats pretty much ran the board with positive movement for them.
Tomorrow we will have the new MULaw poll out of Wisconsin as well as a Ohio Governor and a New Jersey Senate poll from Quinnipiac. We will also have a new poll out of Kansas from Suffolk/USA Today. Next week, we will have PPP polls from Georgia and Connecticut.
We got the Gubernatorial portion of the Iowa poll this evening and it shows the Republican incumbent with a 14 point lead. This contrasts the most recent Rasmussen poll which showed the race in the single digits, and is a couple points higher than other polling this month. Regardless, this race is still out of reach for the Democrats. If this had shown a tighter race, one could have surmised that the Senate lead for Ernst might be even larger. The Iowa poll has a decent track record. They have never over estimated a Democrat and are usually only overestimating Republicans by a point or two. So take that for what it is worth.
This evening Central Illinois Proud posted a week old We Ask America poll on their site. After cross checking it with the poll from last week, I confirmed that the gender cross tabs match up. False alarm there. We will have that Illinois Gubernatorial poll tomorrow from Rasmussen though.
1. I assign Orman to the party with majority. This majority doesn't include Orman. (Dems >49 or GOP >50)
2. In a 49 Dem - 50 GOP Senate, I give Orman a 50/50 probability of caucusing with either party.
3. The effect is that the distribution is skewed from 50/50 to 51/49.
Below are three histograms (this time displayed with lines rather than the usual bars) that show GOP seat distribution in my current projections. The first chart is the one I am using in my model with the Orman assumptions. The second only uses the "majority party" assumption. Therefore in the second chart, Orman always chooses the Democrats when he has the ability to decide control. The third chart always assigns Orman to the GOP.
A second poll out of Massachusetts shows an R +1 margin in contrast to the D +1 margin in the other poll today. This poll also shows the Senate race 2 points tighter.
*This update now includes the third Massachusetts poll of the day as of 5:52 CDT.*
A few new polls today. Illinois Senate seems to be moving back to the left after a brief flirtation with single digits. Massachusetts remains an extremely tight race on the gubernatorial end. South Dakota remains a GOP pickup despite no candidate being able to get to 40%. In Alaska, the combined ticket seems to be paying off for the Independent as he expands his lead by a couple points over the Republican incumbent Parnell.
The Wisconsin poll was the true oddity of the day. This is a Gravis poll done for the Conservative group "TownHall.com" early last week. The poll gives the Democratic challenger a 5% lead over incumbent Governor Scott Walker. There appears to be a typo in the poll (which you can find here). The poll states Registered voters at the top, but all respondents stated they were either very likely or somewhat likely to vote. So the poll appears to actually be a likely voter poll even though the top first page says otherwise.
Democrats have also pulled the generic average tighter. In today's Rasmussen poll, they have a 1 point edge over the GOP.
Tomorrow we will have a Gubernatorial poll from Rasmussen as well as (likely) a Generic Ballot poll from CNN/ORC. PPP will also be out tomorrow with their Iowa and Louisiana polls of which show "small GOP leads in each." Finally, on Wednesday, we will have a new MULaw poll out of Wisconsin. We will see then where that one lands in comparison to the poll released today by the conservative organization mentioned above.
The Democratic candidate for Senate in Iowa released an internal poll conducted last week which shows him tied at 42% with GOP candidate Joni Ernst. This replaces the Loras poll which had Braley up by a few points. This balloons the GOP chances in both Iowa and the overall Senate landscape. My current projection is that the GOP has a slight edge in the race for control of the United States Senate.
There is a GOP (Rounds) internal out of South Dakota, but I am unable to include that one at this point as I have yet to see top-lines for the poll.
Both sides in Nebraska have internals showing the Gubernatorial race in the single digits. While no hard numbers for these polls have been released, the number going around seems to be 7.
A few new Senate polls today. Really nothing changed a whole lot as the GOP Senate chances overall stayed still at 54%.
The shocking poll of the weekend (seriously, there won't be any more that I am aware of in competitive races), Joni Ernst has a 6 point edge in the Iowa Senate race. After most considered the Quinnipiac poll to be just a bad sample, we have a second poll with the same margin. If this race wasn't sitting on the fence, it sure is now. Going forward it will be interesting to see what happens here. Has Ernst now peaked? Are these two polls over estimating the GOP? Have the Democrats just completely blown this race? If the Democrats cannot hold onto this seat: they can look forward to spending the next two years in the Senate Minority.
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