The question is bound to arise: Why do you have the Senate 51-49 in favor of the Democrats when they only have a 43.3% chance of taking the Senate? The answer is that (as I have noted above the number in the graphic) 51-49 represents pushing each seat to wherever it is leaning. With the Senate so close, what matters is how likley each seat is to flip. The closest seat in the D column right now is Indiana is only about a 50% shot of turning blue. The next two are New Hampshire (54% of turning blue) and Nevada (57% of staying blue). Republicans, on the otherhand, have their closest races on their side at least at 60%: North Carolina (60%), Florida (62%) and Arizona (65%).
At the moment, no rational observer could conclude anything other than: Hillary Clinton is winning. The question arises: By how much? Is this just a convention "bump."
It is hard to argue this is all a convention bump. With Trump's continued implosions, we must conclude that is also a factor. Second, both conventions have already happened and they happened over back-to-back weeks. Third, things have gotten worse over the past week for Trump and not better. Finally, he did receive a convention bump and had some momentum going into the conventions. Entering the slow month of August and the Olympics taking place: things may stay put now until September. If this is true, Trump is in huge trouble. Early/absentee voting will begin in some states in September. If he can't turn this around quickly, Clinton could bank an advantage in the early vote.
I currently have Trump projected to be down by 7.2% nationally. We are getting close to having a couple more states switch columns. Nebraska's 2nd congressional district could go to Clinton. If the election were held today, I have Trump up there by 3.42%. In Georgia, Clinton is within 2.22%. In Arizona, she is now only down by 2.34%. Missouri is also down to 5.38%. Montana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Indiana are all in the upper single digits. Clinton's weakest states are Florida (4.42%), North Carolina (2.43%), Ohio (2.60%), and Iowa (4.91%). Nothing else is closer than 7%.
Note: These numbers (at the state and national level all of these are a factor) incorporate Obama's Approval numbers, National polling and state polling. Also, there is a baseline of support for a generic candidate in each state which is in turn affected by national polling and approval numbers.
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