This poll marks a drastic difference from all other Iowa polling. We will need to see if there will be another poll to confirm this kind of seismic movement. This poll has Clinton doing 10%-13.8% worse than the other 3 polls in the average. The other 3 polls in the average give Clinton an average of about 3 1/2% higher and over 50%. Clinton is still well positioned here.
While still not the best, Quinnipiac somehow has a much more reasonable demographic sample than any o their swing state polling this year has had. Their methodology is puzzling.
PPP poll released today shows Hassan trailing Ayotte by 1% in the 2016 NH Senate race. The undecideds, however, heavily lean to the left. More Dems and Indies than Republicans. So, in reality, Hassan would probably win the race if it were held today. That isn't too bad considering she has been on the other end of a large barrage of negative ads against her. If all the one sided spending isn't burying here at this point against the incumbent Senator, she is in good shape if she decides to run for Senate rather than reelection to the Governorship.
I am now starting to hear other people start talking about how far off these Quinnipiac polls have been in their demographic sampling. It is getting to the point where you wonder: are they just trying to get attention or are they actually trying to make the GOP look better than they are. Well, I have once again compiled a sampling comparison between the three Quinnipiac polls and exit polling data from 2008 and 2012.
And I must mention my stupid mistake this morning on Twitter. I accidentally mentioned the wrong person in a Tweet. I meant to mention Speaker Kurt Daudt rather than Speaker Kurt Zellers. Once Former Speaker Zellers pointed out my mistake, I quickly made a public correction and removed my erroneous Tweet so my Twitter feed doesn't lead people to think that Mr. Zellers said something that Mr. Daudt actually said. We all make mistakes and I take pride in admitting when I was wrong. I should not Tweet before my morning coffee.
To start with, Fox News continues to not release much for Demographic data with their polls. The whole "just trust us" thing doesn't work too well when the only thing you give us is an electorate that is likely 4%-6% more red than any realistic electorate we will see in 2016. So, generally, this poll (as with most of their polling this year) should be taken with a bucket of salt. You can't even really put it into context without more demographic data. If the Male/Female and ethnicity splits are as wacky as the partisan split, this poll likely under-polls Clinton by mid-single digits. So their 2% deficit they show for Clinton against Bush and Rubio is more likely to be a 2%-4% lead for Clinton. The 5% lead for Clinton over Trump is more likely 9%-11%. The 7 point lead over Fiorina would be 11%-13%. They didn't ask about Cruz, Walker, Carson or Huckabee even though they had the time to ask a series of push-poll questions to try to mislead respondents about Clinton's email server.
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