Another poll to confirm the PPP survey showing a tied race in Arizona.
New SurveyUSA poll out of Kentucky gives McConnell a lead just inside of the margin of error. This race is still a weak GOP hold. The positives for Grimes are that McConnell still has a -10 approval spread and she has a +1 approval spread. Obama has a 29% approval rating here and former President Bill Clinton has a 53% approval rating. (a +27 spread over his disapproval). Grimes may be well suited to utilize Clinton as much as possible. McConnell wants to pair Grimes with Obama as much as possible.
A new poll out of West Virginia confirms the Rasmussen poll showing that the Republican candidate has expanded her lead by a sizable margin. Tomorrow we will have a new Rasmussen poll on the Arizona Gubernatorial race.
We have a new internal poll from South Dakota and a new partisan poll done by PPP for the League of Conservation Voters in New Hampshire.
While we should not get too far ahead of ourselves: The 2016 Presidential election is only 26 months away. The first votes tallied in the primaries will be in about 16 months. In an effort to set up for 2016, and to expand the 2016 pages that I have now; I am implementing a couple new items:
The Senate half of the EPIC-MRA poll as well as a new Mitchell Research poll. We also have the new Boston Globe poll out of Massachusetts which shows the GOP candidate ahead for the first time this cycle.
Today we have three polls in three different Gubernatorial races. The one that sticks out is from South Carolina. It shows Haley with a 15 point lead which is triple her lead of the last three polls in the state.
A second straight good day for Democrats in the polls. DEMS take back Arkansas Senate and the Wisconsin Governorship is now a pick-up. Both of these races are MoE and could go either way at this point. Expect these races to flip many more times between now and November. The Kansas poll knocked off the YouGov poll from July which had Brownback up by double digits. Now the most favorable poll for him is +1% (instead of 12%).
I will mention again that a shift of a half point is nothing to write home about. Aything within a couple points at this point is essentially a tie. So lesson: Democrats shouldn't go head-over-heals over prospects in Arkansas and Wisconsin. They are only fractionally better than they were yesterday. For the same reason, Republicans shouldn't get discouraged on either of these races.
Remember that these are projections based upon if the election were happening today. If the election were held today I would have the Republicans picking up 4 Senate seats and the Democrats picking up a net of 1 Governorship. My Current toss-up range (±3%) is as follows:
Senate: GOP +1 - +8
Governors: GOP +2 - DEM +4
On July 18th, my range was as follows:
Senate: GOP +1-9
Governors: GOP +3 to DEM +2.
Any financial help to offset the costs of running this site is always appreciated.