In Arkansas, Pryror has released his second internal poll of the week. This one also shows him up by 2% an d it replaces his internal poll from earlier this week.
This morning we got the Senate half of the Rasmussen Michigan poll. Tomorrow we should have the Gubernatorial half. The previous Rasmussen poll in this race was back in January when they had Land 2% ahead. Now, they show Peters with a solid 6% lead. This is consistent with all recent polling with the exception of the YouGov poll. The YouGov poll seems to be becoming more and more inaccurate as we get more results from other firms through the first part of this week.
Contrary to the other polls taken in the state this month, a new Quinnipiac poll gives Kasich a 12 point lead over his Democratic challenger.
We have a couple new Mitchell Research polls out of Michigan. Both races trend here towards the Democrat. A small note about the Governor race: This poll has Snyder at +4 and my previous number was 3.7. So why did it go down to 3.4 from 3.7 because of a +4? Well, the previous Mitchell Research poll in the race was Snyder +5. This new poll replaced that. So this .3 change in my projection stems from the net -1 trend towards Schauer.
Today there were two polls released on the Arkansas Senate race. One internal by Harstad Strategic Research and the other by Talk Business &Politics. The first of which conducted earlier this month has Pryor up 6, the second conducted more recently has Cotton up 2. I am including both of these polls in my calculations. Next week we will get new PPP numbers out of Arkansas (and Alaska as well) so we will be able to replace the couple month old PPP poll with more updated numbers. Non-partisan polling for this race has been rare to say the least. Hopefully this will be a sign of an uptick in polling to close out the summer and move into fall.
New poll conducted by Gravis on behalf of the Conservative organization Human Events seems to be about in line with all previous polling in the state.
A couple races trend back to where they were before yesterday's YouGov poll release. McConnell brings his lead back up over a point in Kentucky. Democrats hold the generic congressional advantage still. Today D +2% from Rasmussen, D +2% from Fox and yesterday is was D +4% from CNN.
A new poll out of Hawaii shows Democratic challenger Ige up 10% on incumbent Neil Abercrombie in the Gubernatorial Democratic primary. Ige fairs a bit better head to head with Republican Aiona in polling for the November general.
Took some time, but here is the last in my series of updates today. No more party switches in this set, but a few races get tighter. Overall, the YouGov poll is good news for Republicans. If these numbers are all accurate, this would be a massive swing in popular opinion over the course of a week. Judging by polling trends in many of these races, it is easy to be skeptical of these results. It will be interesting to see if there is any polling this week that confirms any of this.
The odd part of this set is why they only polled Seifert up against Dayton in the Minnesota Gubernatorial race.
See previous post for the link to cross-tab file. The big news in this set is Louisiana flipping back to the GOP. Kansas and Florida seem to be the oddities today as this poll has a large swing over the course of the last week. We will have to see more polling to confirm this, but at the moment they are taken at face value.
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