A few things have happened since last Friday. The one thing that isn't listed below is a new Rasmussen poll out of Colorado. It gives the Democratic incumbent a 1 point lead in the Senate race. This did not change my numbers (after rounding) for this race, so I have not listed it in my changes.
As I sit here going over lines for an audition tomorrow and listening to the President's town hall meeting on T.V. here in Minneapolis, I realized that I have a few updates to post here. Kentucky is still a statistical tie, but the slight edge has flipped against the incumbent. North Carolina is moving into the "lean DEM" category. After the Kansas poll last night and these polls today: Dems pick up 1 Governorship and GOP picks up 3 Senate seats.
This is what I get for trying to get my post done early. A new poll from Survey USA has the Democrat Paul Davis back on top in the Gubernatorial race in Kansas. This is the 4th of the last 6 polls since last fall to show Davis ahead of incumbent Republican Sam Brownback. The Senate race, while tightening a bit, is still well in the safe GOP range for Senator Pat Roberts. This weekend, I will be posting a more in-depth analysis of the Kansas Gubernatorial race. Upcoming polls to watch for are a Kentucky PPP to be released on the 26th and a Louisiana PPP poll to come out mid next week.
Kansas Governor R +1.7% -> D +1.3%
Kansas Senate R +15.2% -> R +12.1%
Our polls today come out of California and Florida. The California Gubernatorial election is not really competitive, and today's Field Poll. The Florida Gubernatorial, on the other-hand remains tight. Today's poll gives the incumbent his first poll in which he is ahead since a partisan poll in April and a non-partisan poll in March.
The other two changes come from Tuesday night's primary elections. Both of these changes come as somewhat of a surprise. Both candidates that were seen by most as underdogs coming into the night ended up winning in Colorado and Mississippi. The only sticky situation remains in whether McDaniel will concede and rally his supporters behind the nominee. At this point, the only chance Childress has to put this state in the blue column would be the outside chance that McDaniel tries to mount a write in campaign or runs as a third party. I am not sure about the legality of the second of the two scenarios in the state. Regardless, it does leave a large rift within the Mississippi GOP.
Thanks to a Rasmussen poll today, we finally have some hard numbers on the Nevada Gubernatorial race. I am projecting a Sandoval margin of victory at 24.1%. This poll has Sandoval up by 27 points. While the margin will likely tighten some once voters get an opinion on his opponent (45% of respondents have either never heard of Goodman or have no opinion of him): Sandoval is still likely to win by a comfortable margin in November. Of course, this is all barring the Governor making a big blunder akin to his campaign's misspelling of the state of Nevada.
The largest movement today is a poll out of Maine that shows Senator Collins with a massive lead in here race, and Democrat Michaud 4 points ahead in the Gubernatorial race. A New Rasmussen poll today has the Democrats 2% up on Republicans in the generic congressional ballot. A new CBS/NYT poll has Democrats up by 3%. My current average for the generic ballot is D +1.6%. My overall average of all my predicted races is R +1.4%.
Two new presidential polls were released showing Clinton ahead nation wide from Rasmussen, and Clinton ahead in Iowa from Quinnipiac.
I am trying out something else new with my daily updates. The arrow in the center now represents the direction of movement in the race. The only big change today is that Senator Booker has come back down to a more feasible 11.3 point margin.
Today's poll out of Iowa confirms preveous polling that Governor Branstad is well positioned to win reelection. The Nebraska poll is from PPP. The problem with this poll is that it was commissioned by the Hassebrook camp. Dispite it being a partisan poll, it does come from a polling firm with a good track record over the last few years. The poll simply confirms the state of the race as it was in a Rasmussen poll from May. The upside for Democrats is Ricketts still has a negative approval rating. Also, the Libertarian in the race will take away a few points from Ricketts more than he will from Hassebrook. The Libertarian, Elworth, receives about 8% of the vote.
The big news today is Arkansas flipping towards Cotton. While this race is still a statistical tie, it does lean red at the moment. Unfortunately, this is an internal Cotton poll without much data released with it. While, I did include it, it is weighted lower based on that uncertainty. Due to it's recency, however, it does comprise 20% of my projected result for that race. Over half of the number is comprised of polls in the last four weeks, all of which show Cotton ahead.
Not sure what happened over at Rasmussen today. We were supposed to see a poll for the Nevada Gubernatorial race around lunch time. If that poll is for some reason thrown out later this evening, I will just include it for tomorrow.
I now have the GOP picking up 4 seats in the Senate. The GOP's potential seat gain is between 2 and 9. For the Gubernatorial outlook, I have the outcomes between R +2 and D +2. (I took all races withing 2% and placed them in GOP column, and then the DEM column.)
Today we go the polls from PPP that I mentioned at the end of last week. The North Carolina Senate race has now flipped back to Hagan. The poll shows her leading Tillis by 5% with the third party candidate, and 4% with only the two.
The second poll is out of Minnesota. This poll shows the races more in line with previous polling in the state rather than last week's Survey USA/KSTP poll. Both Governor Mark Dayton and Senator Al Franken seem to be well positioned to win reelection.
Next week, this same polling firm will be polling the Kentucky Senate race. It will be interesting to get more data in that toss-up race. This poll will either confirm the last poll giving Grimes a lead, or it will show that poll to be an outlier.
The only significant polling news is that McDaniel is still up in the GOP run-off race in Mississippi and Peters is pulling away from Land in Michigan.
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