This morning, Mitt Romney, announced that he will not be making a third attempt to run for President. This comes in contrast to his vocal interest in making another run throughout the month of January. This leaves us with a (slightly) more clear picture of the 2016 GOP race. It now seems more likely that Jeb Bush will be the frontrunner from the get go. Where things go from there are still anyone's guess.
Declined to run
As Mitt Romney has expressed interest in another run for the White House; Paul Ryan has announced that he does not intent to run in 2016. It appears that we can take him out of contention for the GOP nomination. Unless pollsters decide to do with him what they have been doing from time to time with Elizabeth Warren. (include the individuals in polls when it has been made clear by that individual that he/she does not intend to run)
We are still waiting for an announcement from Hillary Clinton as to her 2016 intentions. I am a little surprised that we have not heard anything yet. Not really sure exactly what to make of this. It is putting some Democrats in a bit of a bind while they wait her out. If she were to sit it out we may very well see some candidates that have declined a run jump into the race such as Warren, Klobuchar, Kerry, Gillibrand, Cuomo, Castro, and so forth.
In the coming week I will be posting a list of possible VP candidates for each party. Tomorrow, I will be posting a list of GOP potential candidates for the top of the ticket as I did with the Democrats earlier this month.
I have now included on this page (along with transitioning to Presidential 2016 tallies) a running tracker for President Obama's approval rating. Right now, this is probably the most useful running tracker that I can include here. It is a chronologically weighted average of recent polls. I have included the standard deviation values for reference. For those that are not familiar with standard deviations: this number gives an insight into the variance between the respective values in the included polling.
We already have our first big 2016 retirement. California Senator Barbara Boxer has announced that she will not be running for reelection in 2016. This creates an interesting situation in a open seat with tons of possible candidates. The big question here comes out of California's open primary. The top two primary vote getters, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the November general. If, for some reason, there is only two strong Republicans and several Democrats that split the vote enough: there could theoretically be two Republicans on the November ballot (or the other way around if the situation is reversed).
We also have situations developing in Indiana, Kentucky and Louisiana.
-In Indiana, Governor Mike Pence, has yet to decide if he is going to run for President in 2016. Indiana law prohibits a candidate from running for two offices at the same time. Therefore, if he runs for President: we will have an open race for Governor in 2016. He could, however, try a run for President and if he doesn't get any early traction, still drop out of that race before the filing deadline for the Indiana Gubernatorial.
-In Louisiana, we have a 2015 Gubernatorial election to replace Bobby Jindal. The most likely GOP candidate will be Louisiana's Senior Senator David Vitter who's seat will be up in 2016. If elected Governor in 2015, he would be able to appoint an interim replacement in early 2016 and set up a possible run for a full term for that appointee that fall. Or that appointee could sit out running for the full term and leave a completely open race. One of the more appealing Democratic candidates would be now Former Senator Mary Landrieu. Or, possibly, Mitch Landrieu the current Mayor of New Orleans. Though he may pass on that, or run for Governor in 2015.
-Kentucky brings a situation similar to that in Indiana. Rand Paul cannot run for Senate and President at the same time which may leave an open Senate seat for 2016. There are a variety of options here depending on who ends up running in 2015 for Governor.
I have been busy with a variety of things since the 2014 election season wrapped up. Aside from transitioning the site to 2015 and 2016 election cycles and furthering my careers (yes there are multiple), I have been working on a 1960 Presidential Election scenario for a game that I have enjoyed playing around with over the last few years. It is President Infinity from 270Soft. The guy that makes this game also makes a congressional game as well as election games for the UK, Germany, Canada, and Australia. You can visit his site HERE. I would highly recommend trying out at least his President Infinity game. You can take a look at my 1960 scenario which is available for download HERE. At that link you will find the latest updated version of my 1960 scenario. For political and election nerds like myself, this game is a blast.
Now that we have hit 2015, I am going to begin transitioning the live portion of the site towards 2015 Gubernatorial races and the 2016 Presidential, Senate, and Gubernatorial races. I am going to start at the moment by giving you a peak at what I have right now.
This is a chart displaying the "raw data" for each candidate that has been polled by at least one of the poll in my model. The poll results here are grouped under each candidate and color coded according to poll. The order of the candidates from left to right is determined by the unweighted average of the poll results for each candidate. Polls in which a candidate was not included are excluded from the average for that candidate.
Example: Mitt Romney got 19% in the only two polls that tested him. Therefore his average is 19% and not 7.6% which is what it would be if I used 0's in places where the candidate was excluded. For these preliminary purposes, I am concerned with how these potential candidates are testing in the polls of which they are included. Ergo, candidates are not penalized for not being a part of a particular survey.
Any financial help to offset the costs of running this site is always appreciated.