Weak Dem Hold
Prior to winning in 2008, Begich was the mayor of Anchorage. To this point Begich has outraised all of his potential GOP openents, as well as out spent, and has over a million dollars in cash on hand over his nearest competitor. The money advantage on top of his strong campaign skills will help him greatly this fall. It should also be remembered that Begich is probably one of, if not the most, conservative Democrats in the Senate at the moment. He voted against expanding background checks on gun purchases, and he is a strong supporter of the oil industry. Both of these positions play very well for him in Alaska. (especially the latter)
Polling in this district is as follows: (against Sullivan, his most likely opponent)
44%-42% for Begich (April 2014 Moore Information)
41%-46% for Sullivan (April 2014 Magellan)
44%-44% tie (March 2014 Rasmussen)
41%-37% for Begich (February 2014 PPP) <- This is the only poll with the AIP candidate. (he gets 6%)
If this state was any more moderate, Begich would be seen as a clear favorite for re-election. However, in Alaska this is far from the case. Regardless, I still see this race as a Dem hold this fall.