-Democrats have a 476,481 advantage in voter registration in the state as of May 20th of this year.
-Women registered voters outnumber the men by 178,087.
-There are 236,499 voters in Kentucky registered as other than Republicans or Democrats.
-Though the President lost the state in 2012 by 22.7%, Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 17% in turnout of registered voters.
-Exit polls in the last few elections have shown that voters identify more with the Republican party when asked after voting than they do in relation to their actual registration.
-Turnout of voters (once registered) is about equal between Caucasians and African Americans.
With these numbers alone, one could surmise that Grimes has a considerable advantage. Let us not forget than McConnell's approval ratings are quite low in the state. McConnell's approval ratings in Kentucky are higher, however, than President Obama's are. Even when turning out registered voters at higher rates, Democrats still lack when it comes to self identification on election day. Kentucky is a difficult beast to predict due to these circumstances. This is why the state has elected Democrats such as Grimes and Beshear statewide, while voting for Governor Romney by a large margin.
Today's poll has a 50-50 split of men to women. It also gives white voters 90% over 10% for all others. Finally, the poll has a 39-39 split between Republicans and Democrats. The first two numbers skew the poll towards the Republicans, while the third factor skews the needle back the other way.
The partisan poll from a few days ago on this race gave males a 50.4-49.6 advantage. This poll also was a few points tighter, and within the margin of error, than today's poll. This also gives a 86-14 differential in race.
With a decent turnout of minorities and women this fall; Grimes has a decent shot at edging out a narrow victory. The Kentucky electorate is a strange beast and the exception to the rule on many levels. Even with that being considered, these last two polls over-sample likely McConnell votes. Over sampling (and not weighting after the fact) of men, whites, and the elderly will skew a poll towards any Republican. Even without taking into account this rightward skew; the race is one of the tightest in the nation at the moment.